A previous article highlighted the influence of the El Niño-La Niña transition on natural latex production, noting a small reduction in 2016. As we examine the impact of the newly generated El Niño phenomenon on latex production, it becomes crucial to understand the relationship between abnormal weather patterns, natural latex yields, and overall production.
While natural latex production is generally less affected by climate conditions, it is significantly influenced by the willingness to cut rubber. However, the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events can have slight negative effects on latex production due to their impact on weather patterns. Gum trees, which are the source of natural latex, thrive under conditions of even water distribution and moderate heat. Let’s explore the implications of El Niño and La Niña on latex production in further detail.
During the transition period between El Niño and La Niña, a neutral climate prevails, which is favorable for production. This leads to a rebound in production levels on a monthly basis. However, the probability of La Niña arriving, with forecasts indicating over 50% probability between August and April, can cause a small decrease in yields. Additionally, the increased likelihood of meteorological disasters such as floods and typhoons during La Niña can lead to a significant reduction in production. The extent of the yield reduction depends on the timing and intensity of La Niña.
The judgment logic is based on the relationship between abnormal weather, natural latex yields, and production. While the area of rubber trees cut is minimally affected by the climate of a given year, abnormal climate conditions primarily influence yield by affecting the unit yield. The economic life of rubber trees spans 20-30 years, with cutting typically occurring after 5-7 years of planting. The annual cutting area depends on the planting area and tree age structure.
El Niño brings drought conditions, which slow tree growth, delay and shorten the harvesting period, and reduce the yield due to decreased latex production and regeneration rates caused by water scarcity. On the other hand, La Niña, depending on its intensity, brings rainy weather that hinders photosynthesis and slows down latex recovery. Moreover, excessive rainfall is not conducive to cutting. In extreme cases, typhoons and floods can lead to the death of rubber trees, resulting in a significant decrease in yield.
La Niña perpetuates the decline in natural latex yields, and the increase in rubber tree cultivation area can no longer drive production growth. During the El Niño period, there was a slight decline in overall yields within the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), but countries like Thailand (36%), Indonesia (26%), and Vietnam (8%) experienced only minor effects on yields. However, the overall area of rubber tree cultivation increased by 0.87% year-on-year, driving a slight increase in world production in 2015.
Conversely, La Niña increases the likelihood of rainfall and extreme weather events, causing a decline in yields among countries (with the severity depending on the intensity of the extreme weather). Although the open cultivation area expanded by 1.05% year-on-year in 2016, the overall yield is still expected to decline, with the magnitude dependent on the strength of La Niña.
To provide historical context, let’s consider the El Niño-La Niña transition that occurred in 2009-2010. During this period, India experienced a decrease in yields and natural latex production. In the latter half of 2009, El Niño had a significant impact, leading to reduced yields and a decline in natural latex production. However, in the second half of 2010, La Niña occurred without accompanying floods or other disasters, allowing for a recovery in yields and production. Nevertheless, the extent of the recovery was limited and did not match the levels seen in 2008.
In conclusion, the newly generated El Niño phenomenon can have a notable impact on latex production. While natural latex production is generally less affected by climate conditions, El Niño and La Niña events can cause slight negative effects due to their influence on weather patterns. Drought during El Niño slows tree growth and reduces latex yield, while La Niña brings rainy weather that hampers photosynthesis and latex recovery. Extreme weather events can lead to further yield reductions. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for stakeholders in the latex industry to anticipate and mitigate potential challenges and fluctuations in production.
